Trump’s remaining three-year term sparks tension

U.S. President Donald Trump marked the first anniversary of his second term on Jan. 20. Over the past year, a single remark or social media post from Trump has been enough to jolt global markets and unsettle international security dynamics. What once seemed improbable has repeatedly materialized. Decisions that initially drew disbelief have, time and again, become reality.

Trump’s approach in his first term, which ran from January 2017 to January 2021, was relatively restrained by comparison. Although he applied pressure on China over trade issues, major steps such as labeling Beijing a currency manipulator or imposing steel tariffs were largely postponed until his second year in office. At the time, critics often argued that his rhetoric outpaced his actions.

His second term has unfolded very differently. Within weeks of returning to office, Trump launched an aggressive global trade campaign in February, imposing sweeping tariffs with little hesitation. The measures extended even to close allies, including South Korea, Japan and the European Union. Despite mounting criticism at home and abroad, he pressed ahead, unapologetic in his strategy. Trump also openly demanded that allies increase investment in the United States, a tactic that, controversial as it was, ultimately led to a surge in foreign capital flows.

Trump has also delivered a series of shocks in diplomacy and security affairs. In June last year, he ordered a strike on Iranian territory, an unprecedented action in U.S. history. Earlier this year, he authorized a military operation aimed at capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and extraditing him to the United States. Taken together, these moves underscore his determination to execute decisions swiftly once they are made.

That resolve was foreshadowed in the National Security Strategy released on Dec. 4, which emphasized reinforcing U.S. influence across the Western Hemisphere. Barely a month later, the administration acted against Venezuela, a leading anti-American and pro-China government in the region, signaling that the document was not merely declaratory but operational.

More recently, Trump’s proposals to annex Greenland and pursue regime change in Iran have drawn intense international attention and unease. In the past, such remarks might have been brushed aside as rhetorical excess. This time, they are being taken seriously. Global actors now watch closely, increasingly convinced that Trump may attempt to turn these ideas into policy.

What lies behind Trump’s bold, and at times extreme, actions? His trademark unpredictability, craving for recognition, and uncompromising pursuit of self-interest all play a role. Unlike during his first term, his current inner circle lacks seasoned figures with deep policy expertise. Instead, it is dominated by loyal MAGA supporters, leaving fewer institutional restraints on his impulses.

Another critical factor is that Trump no longer faces the constraints of reelection. With no future term to consider, he has fewer political incentives to moderate his actions and may be inclined to push through his preferred policies even at considerable risk. Analysts note that second-term U.S. presidents often take steps they avoided earlier, seeking to secure a defining legacy. Former President Barack Obama’s decision to advance the controversial Iran nuclear deal late in his second term is a frequently cited example.

This dynamic suggests that issues with far-reaching implications for South Korea’s security and economy could undergo sudden shifts during the remainder of Trump’s term. These include North Korea-U.S. relations, the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula, and the broader trajectory of U.S.-China relations. Combined with Trump’s highly personal governing style and the absence of electoral restraints, the potential for abrupt and unpredictable change is significant. For South Korea, this reality underscores the urgent need to prepare a wide range of contingency plans rather than rely on assumptions of continuity.