China faces demographic change

The Financial Times reported that the Chinese market for adult diapers could exceed infant products by 2025, reflecting China’s low birth rates and aging population trends. 　

The article said on Monday that while the demand for children’s diapers was dwindling, there is surging demand for adult nappies at care homes. Chinese manufacturers told The Financial Times that the sales of adult diapers would exceed children’s diapers in terms of annual sales by 2025.

Unicharm, the best-selling diaper brand in China, is spending more of its marketing budget to adult diapers than baby diapers. A factory owner from a nappy factory in Hubei said that the factory’s manufacturing lines had shifted from baby diapers to adult diapers. The Financial Times said that China’s diaper market is gearing for a fundamental shift.

The Hong Kong-based investment and brokerage group CLSA predicts that within just over eight years the adult diaper market in China could be worth 16 billion dollars, from less than 1 billion dollars last year. By 2040, the market size could rise to 30 billion dollars.

This change is due to China’s changing demographics. According to World Bank and China census, the average birth rate of women in China fell from 5.9 in 1961 to 1.3 last year, the lowest since research started in 1952. French investment bank Natixis predicts that China’s senior population, which accounted for 10% of the total population last year, could rise to 25% before 2050.


Eun-Taek Lee nabi@donga.com