N. Korea scraps Sep. 19 military deal with South Korea

North Korea delivered a surprise notification on Thursday, saying, "We will immediately restore all military measures that were halted on the ground, at sea, and in the air, in accordance with the September 19 Inter-Korean military agreement." In response to North Korea's unexpected launch of a military reconnaissance satellite from two days earlier, the South Korean military partially suspended the effectiveness of the Inter-Korean agreement. It deployed an unmanned aerial vehicle for North Korean surveillance the following day, prompting the North to essentially declare the total nullification of the September 19th agreement, intensifying tensions significantly.

On the same day, the North Korean Ministry of Defense pledged, "We will deploy more powerful military forces and new military equipment in the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) area." Observers noted an increased possibility of North Korea's localized provocations directly targeting South Korea.

In response, the South Korean military authorities escalated the firepower readiness posture in the front areas of the demilitarized zone, including K-9 self-propelled howitzers, anticipating the high possibility of provocations from North Korea. It was reported that the military authorities checked various localized provocation scenarios, such as North Korea's firing of self-propelled artillery and anti-aircraft launchers, along the Military Demarcation Line.

Following this declaration, there is speculation that North Korea may soon engage in a show of force by deploying a set of short-range missiles called the 'North Korean version of Iskander' (KN-23), 'North Korean version of ATACMS' (KN-24), and 'Large-caliber Multiple Launch Rocket System' (KN-25) within tens of kilometers north of the demilitarized zone.

Particularly, the South Korean military is highly concerned about the possibility of North Korea's maritime provocations. There is a concern that North Korea will likely equip traditional warheads on newly developed underwater and maritime weapons, such as the recently revealed nuclear torpedo 'Haeil' or the tactical nuclear attack submarine 'Kim Gun Ok Hero Submarine,' to engage in military provocations near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East and West Seas. Based on satellite photos, the North Korean specialized media 'Beyond Division' reported that Pyongyang has deployed several submarines near the Mayang Island submarine base on the front seas off Sinpo.

The South Korean government and military have decided to respond in kind each time North Korea translates the nullification of the September 19th agreement into concrete action in different areas. If North Korea engages in maritime or underwater provocations near the NLL, the plan is to respond with live-fire exercises involving K-9 self-propelled howitzers deployed on Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong Islands.


Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com